The Government
in general and Gordon Brown in particular have done well out of the housing
boom over the past decade. Stealth taxation via stamp duty and inheritance tax
have enabled them to increase public spending faster than the economy has
grown, while lax controls in the credit market have powered equity release to
feed consumption growth in the ‘spend not save’ culture they have encouraged.
They readily
blame the sub-prime problems in the
Northern Rock has little to do with the sub-prime debacle but everything to do
with a business model the Government tells us was flawed, but which was
regulated and controlled by the FSA and the Bank of England? Indeed the flawed
business model they criticised Northern “Wreck’s” management for, is precisely
the same model they are now wrestling with. They can drop base rates but the
real world is running off LIBOR, which is priced against toxic debt not
political whim.
At the same
time the uncontrolled inflation of house prices has encouraged off-plan
investors and buy-to-lets while producing an impenetrable barrier for first
time buyers. The Government has of course enjoyed dramatically higher Stamp
Duty - £6.4 billion in 2006/7 - to squander on ever increasing Government (out
of control) spending. When will they be made to measure the benefits achieved
from their expenditure honestly and consider the costs to the economy?
Meanwhile the
total lack of understanding of the new-build planning process means we are
still building too few dwellings and those we are building are of the wrong
type – 50 per cent flats compared with 15 per cent in 1996. Following this, new
built flats are now selling at auction 26 per cent below their original selling
prices while instead of building more housing starts are actually falling. As
if this is not enough, their dogmatic insistence on introducing HIPS, in the
face of the best advice from all stakeholders, has added insult to injury in a
market already suffering from economic mismanagement over the last 10 years.
I leave you to
debate whether all this is incompetence or a deliberate (but failed) attempt to
micro manage one of the key drivers of the economy for political aims. Either
way if the Government was a public company the senior management would be gone
by now!